Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Equipment Spending to Return to Growth in 2H09

Worldwide semiconductor capital equipment spending will grow 47.3 percent in the second half of 2009, but due to the steep declines in the first half of the year, the market is projected to decline 47.9 percent in 2009, according to Gartner Inc.

Worldwide semiconductor capital equipment spending will rebound in 2010, when revenue is forecast to increase 34.3 percent (see Table 1). All segments of the market are expected to grow in 2010.

"Equipment purchases for the remainder of 2009 and the first half of 2010 will be mostly technology buys, as memory companies get ready for copper implementation, and double patterning for critical geometries in the 5x nm and 4x nm generations," said Dean Freeman, research vice president at Gartner. "Capacity will begin to ramp in the second half of 2010 as businesses and consumers begin to open up their pocket books to purchase electronic goods, and more consistent semiconductor growth should be occurring worldwide."

Worldwide wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending is expected to decrease 48.8 percent in 2009. For 2010, the most likely scenario is for WFE spending to increase 38.3 percent, paralleling anticipated growth in capital spending.

Worldwide packaging and assembly equipment (PAE) spending is forecast to decrease 43.1 percent in 2009, then increase 40.5 percent in 2010. The recovery for PAE began in the second quarter of this year as the market bounced off its sharp correction in the fourth quarter of 2008 through the first quarter of 2009.

For 2009, worldwide automated test equipment (ATE) is on pace to decline 36.5 percent. After falling substantially for several quarters, the ATE market recovered in the second quarter of this year. Growth is expected to continue over the next several quarters as device demand improves.

Gartner