2010 Sales Strength Shows in Memory, Foundry Industries

With the first half of 2010 now behind us, market research companies have begun sharing analysis of the year so far, much of which shows a recovery well under way that will lead to a record year for the semiconductor industry.

Phrases like "performed extremely well" and "strong double-digit growth rates" were used throughout in a report from IC Insights this morning.

According to the company's data, most large memory and foundry companies showed growth in IC Insights ranking of the top semiconductor industry companies by revenue (see ranking below).

Of the big five memory suppliers in the top 20 ranking, Toshiba, Hynix, Micron, and Elpida all gained at least one position. Indeed, Elpida jumped five spots to number 10. Although Samsung, second to only Intel in the ranking, did not move up in the ranking, the memory maker did gain ground on the number one supplier. According to IC Insights, in 2009, Intel's semiconductor sales were 52 percent larger than Samsung's sales. However, in Q2, Intel's sales margin over Samsung was only 21 percent.

"It is no secret that the DRAM and NAND flash memory markets have been extremely strong over the past few quarters," Bill McClean President of IC Insights, said in a statement. "This is very evident when looking at the Q2/Q1 sales increases of Hynix (14 percent), Micron (14 percent), and Elpida (18 percent). Moreover, each of these companies 1H10 [first half 2010] sales were only about $1 billion or less than their full-year 2009 sales results!"

IC Insights also gave a nod to the foundry industry, noting that the two largest foundries, TSMC and UMC, also did very well in 1H10. According to the data, TSMC moved up one spot in the ranking to the fifth position, while UMC jumped six spots into 18th place.

If foundries were excluded from the top 20 ranking, Panasonic with 1H10 sales of $1.830 billion and Nvidia with 1H10 sales of $1.804 billion would claim the 19th and 20th positions, respectively, the company reported.

"Collectively, the top 20 semiconductor companies had sales of about $102 billion in 1H10," McClean noted. "If 2H10 sales are only flat with 1H10 (they will probably be higher), the total sales of the top 20 companies would be $204 billion. Even at $204 billion, the full-year 2010 top 20 sales growth rate would be 29 percent."

2010 expected to set record dollar volume increase
McClean and company also this week estimated the 2010 worldwide semiconductor market will register the largest dollar volume increase in history. The forecasted jump of $72 billion is expected to bring the market to $310 billion total. The projected 2010 increase is expected to exceed the previous record high of $59 billion, set in 2000, by 22 percent.

IC Insights reported that a $72 billion increase in 2010 would equate to a growth rate of 30 percent over 2009 and would be the sixth largest increase in the past 32 years. It would also be the highest increase since the 37 percent increase 10 years ago in 2000.

A large percentage of the $72 billion 2010 semiconductor market increase is forecast to be quickly converted into a rush of capital spending by the semiconductor producers. IC Insights noted that 2010 semiconductor industry capital spending is expected to surge by $21.4 billion, an 83 percent jump over 2009 to $47.2 billion total. The $21.4 billion projected increase in capital spending represents 30 percent of the total semiconductor industry dollar volume growth forecast for the year.

"Although worldwide GDP is forecast to grow by 3.9 percent in 2010, this growth rate is only 0.3 point above the long-term average rate of 3.6 percent. Thus, the real driving force behind the $72 billion semiconductor market increase this year is the extremely strong growth in the PC and smart phone segments," McClean said. "In 2010, PC unit volume shipments are forecast to grow by at least 18 percent, to 338 million, with smart phone unit sales expected to surge by 21 percent to 275 million. Moreover, momentum is still building, with both segments forecast to register at least 10 percent higher unit volume shipments in the second half of this year as compared to the first half."



IC Insights