Semiconductor Capacity Expected to Increase through 2012

Recent analysis from Gartner Inc. supports the market research company's estimates for significant 2010 capital spending growth.

In its Semiconductor DQ Report released this morning, Gartner discussed Q2 worldwide semiconductor capacity. Since its Q1 capacity analysis update, 2010 has seen an increase in year-over-year overall capacity from 5 percent to 6 percent, driven partly by PC and cell phone production unit growth, Gartner said.

"Since the Q1 Market Insight [Gartner report] on semiconductor capacity, our revised capacity numbers improved slightly from negative 2.3 percent in 2009 to negative 1.9 percent, increased from 5 percent in 2010 to 6 percent, slowed slightly in 2011 from 9 percent to 8 percent, and remained steady at 8 percent in 2012," David Christensen, a Gartner analyst, said in today's report. "These numbers are consistent with our latest forecasts where capital spending for 2010 is expected to grow 83.5 percent year over year. We project that the next cyclical decline will begin in 2013, driven by an oversupply by the memory market."

According to Gartner, companies spending the most during the last three months include GlobalFoundries, Samsung, Toshiba, and TSMC.

Gartner noted that only one of the top 10 spenders (see table), Texas Instruments, has adopted an "asset lite" model for its most advanced digital production. As has been celebrated by the Dallas-based company and financial analysts, TI is focusing on increasing its analog capacity, in April announcing it would double capacity at its 300-mm analog fab and in July buying two additional wafer fabs and related manufacturing equipment from Spansion Japan Ltd.


SOURCE: Gartner

Gartner also noted that since 2005, nine of the top spenders in 2010 have averaged at least $1 billion in annual spending and seven of the 10 companies show capex averages of $1.5 billion or more, with most at about $2 billion. The minimum consistent capex requirement to compete with manufacturing capacity at the leading edge is between $1.5 billion and $2 billion per year.

Gartner, as well as other market research firms, believes the memory and foundry markets will be the largest benefactors of 2010's new capacity.